Are identifications keeping pace with observations?

On another thread I played around with some numbers from an old thread from 2024 which discussed the number of identifications required per observation:

Riffing off of my last sentence there:

Year Observations x 1.5 Identification Deficit (obsx1.5 - IDs for others)
2014 781549.5 311915.5
2015 1281343.5 274977.5
2016 2529723 268994
2017 4903840.5 -470775.5
2018 10479934.5 -321108.5
2019 20022907.5 -676815.5
2020 35457846 4741653
2021 43891863 4078583
2022 50545449 1713599
2023 62029138.5 3029910.5
2024 76394332.5 5303149.5
2025 94438891.5 12204610.5

The cumulative identification deficit of those years would be 30,458,693.

So I’m just playing around with numbers and they seem to fit with identifer frustrations, but I don’t know how useful or realistic they actually are. Does anyone have an idea of how applicable @matthewvosper’s 2.5 value is to iNat observations more broadly? I’d be curious to know if/how that value has changed as the computer vision has changed. I can’t think of any other variables that would affect it (I doubt the average iNat user is going to get significantly more or less conscientious about their initial IDs).

i think the most important number is how research grade vs verifiable has changed (or not) over time. as far as i can tell, it’s holding relatively steady globally.

but if you want to express things in terms of some sort of identification to observation ratio, here’s what i’ve found in the past: https://forum.inaturalist.org/t/identifriday-is-the-happiest-day-of-the-week/26908/1701

I think iNaturalist is too diverse to combine the data together, birds, reptiles, plants, bacteria, insects, etc. I think its worth looking at the data broken down into groups. I posted a frog the other day, it already has like 5 confirmations. That is very different from the average fly.

Also no, my area not at all. Maybe 1 in 10 new observations of my taxa area are getting an ID from me.

Thank you – your understanding of how to iNat – is what my 1.25 rests on.