How fast are flowering times changing in California? I am interested in the flowering times of wild plants within their typical ranges. Do some species vary widely in the time they flower each year? How much variation is there per year in when the first flower of a species is observed? How strongly is this tied to the coming of spring? Can a flower that is partially open make a plant be considered flowering?
I would say that an individual plant normally varies a couple of weeks in its blooming time , but sometimes as much as six weeks depending on the weather and rain fall . I would guess that the average bloom date is speeding up a couple of days or more per decade . Yes , some species are more dependable than other species .
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The study of the timing of biological events, such as flowering, is called phenology. There is a huge literature on the effects of climate change on phenology, and I would guess it includes multiple detailed answers to your questions. Alas, I don’t know that literature well. Here is one example: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/gcb.13532
Richardson, B.A., Chaney, L., Shaw, N.L. and Still, S.M., 2017. Will phenotypic plasticity affecting flowering phenology keep pace with climate change?. Global change biology , 23 (6), pp.2499-2508.
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