what i see since 2018 (below) is that there definitely are more casuals in CNC months, but it doesn’t seem that bad to me. there definitely are other months like Feb 2019 that stand out more to me as having unusually high numbers of casuals.
one thing that i do see is that the casual ratio is lower in more recent months. i’m not sure if that’s a function of older observations having had a longer time to get identifiers looking at them and classifying them properly (or, alternatively, more observations in absolute terms in recent months having overwhelmed the identifier community) or if there is a genuine improvement in more recent years.
one really interesting thing (to me) in the monthly numbers to me is starting around this year, Android seems to have edged out iOS as the largest source of observations. (that’s especially interesting when you consider my previous note about the geographic regions that have high numbers of Android users.)
| Created Month | All Total | All Casual | All Casual / Total | Android Total | Android Casual | Android Casual / Total | iOS | iOS Casual | iOS Casual / Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1/1/2018 | 337,944 | 44,053 | 0.130 | 31,175 | 5,884 | 0.189 | 68,083 | 7,835 | 0.115 |
| 2/1/2018 | 332,136 | 48,572 | 0.146 | 39,564 | 8,317 | 0.210 | 80,627 | 9,909 | 0.123 |
| 3/1/2018 | 471,622 | 57,655 | 0.122 | 81,699 | 19,024 | 0.233 | 147,804 | 20,465 | 0.138 |
| 4/1/2018 | 1,073,190 | 173,598 | 0.162 | 227,360 | 56,425 | 0.248 | 443,395 | 77,033 | 0.174 |
| 5/1/2018 | 988,261 | 138,763 | 0.140 | 205,995 | 55,967 | 0.272 | 381,132 | 58,898 | 0.155 |
| 6/1/2018 | 871,475 | 103,155 | 0.118 | 188,603 | 47,271 | 0.251 | 321,634 | 36,174 | 0.112 |
| 7/1/2018 | 998,591 | 165,286 | 0.166 | 195,393 | 50,347 | 0.258 | 331,143 | 33,915 | 0.102 |
| 8/1/2018 | 1,019,235 | 216,523 | 0.212 | 181,934 | 46,463 | 0.255 | 313,268 | 33,800 | 0.108 |
| 9/1/2018 | 912,432 | 136,622 | 0.150 | 197,798 | 57,505 | 0.291 | 353,370 | 51,354 | 0.145 |
| 10/1/2018 | 841,344 | 115,575 | 0.137 | 174,748 | 53,476 | 0.306 | 307,362 | 41,694 | 0.136 |
| 11/1/2018 | 704,667 | 140,743 | 0.200 | 135,955 | 51,220 | 0.377 | 234,603 | 61,659 | 0.263 |
| 12/1/2018 | 573,141 | 57,951 | 0.101 | 84,335 | 22,147 | 0.263 | 143,638 | 19,407 | 0.135 |
| 1/1/2019 | 626,140 | 62,696 | 0.100 | 90,612 | 22,894 | 0.253 | 148,690 | 21,502 | 0.145 |
| 2/1/2019 | 765,663 | 200,042 | 0.261 | 190,755 | 97,670 | 0.512 | 182,675 | 41,304 | 0.226 |
| 3/1/2019 | 954,559 | 118,378 | 0.124 | 191,498 | 47,275 | 0.247 | 318,930 | 45,094 | 0.141 |
| 4/1/2019 | 2,272,726 | 422,623 | 0.186 | 647,063 | 190,698 | 0.295 | 859,914 | 136,227 | 0.158 |
| 5/1/2019 | 1,828,781 | 251,024 | 0.137 | 427,271 | 106,108 | 0.248 | 667,261 | 91,170 | 0.137 |
| 6/1/2019 | 1,738,770 | 196,067 | 0.113 | 425,690 | 91,605 | 0.215 | 652,339 | 74,729 | 0.115 |
| 7/1/2019 | 1,894,877 | 195,747 | 0.103 | 462,848 | 90,896 | 0.196 | 674,631 | 65,764 | 0.097 |
| 8/1/2019 | 1,858,526 | 203,110 | 0.109 | 450,487 | 91,789 | 0.204 | 649,730 | 66,158 | 0.102 |
| 9/1/2019 | 1,712,732 | 213,486 | 0.125 | 400,197 | 86,143 | 0.215 | 652,348 | 85,581 | 0.131 |
| 10/1/2019 | 1,405,707 | 182,071 | 0.130 | 334,242 | 77,602 | 0.232 | 475,259 | 65,360 | 0.138 |
| 11/1/2019 | 1,036,851 | 150,821 | 0.145 | 233,946 | 64,841 | 0.277 | 291,807 | 56,493 | 0.194 |
| 12/1/2019 | 874,135 | 90,539 | 0.104 | 172,277 | 38,563 | 0.224 | 213,151 | 30,646 | 0.144 |
| 1/1/2020 | 976,079 | 95,882 | 0.098 | 174,036 | 34,150 | 0.196 | 235,833 | 28,788 | 0.122 |
| 2/1/2020 | 1,173,542 | 252,193 | 0.215 | 204,325 | 41,055 | 0.201 | 261,456 | 34,347 | 0.131 |
| 3/1/2020 | 1,681,279 | 268,452 | 0.160 | 323,869 | 63,398 | 0.196 | 497,240 | 63,502 | 0.128 |
| 4/1/2020 | 3,144,957 | 436,080 | 0.139 | 745,845 | 163,649 | 0.219 | 1,132,316 | 179,022 | 0.158 |
| 5/1/2020 | 3,477,538 | 413,428 | 0.119 | 887,022 | 165,323 | 0.186 | 1,249,808 | 165,301 | 0.132 |
| 6/1/2020 | 3,315,133 | 351,014 | 0.106 | 890,885 | 154,515 | 0.173 | 1,129,997 | 122,992 | 0.109 |
| 7/1/2020 | 3,301,743 | 311,407 | 0.094 | 889,214 | 142,069 | 0.160 | 1,111,657 | 102,554 | 0.092 |
| 8/1/2020 | 3,082,797 | 285,460 | 0.093 | 809,159 | 132,628 | 0.164 | 1,017,505 | 97,035 | 0.095 |
| 9/1/2020 | 3,015,813 | 342,643 | 0.114 | 750,734 | 130,007 | 0.173 | 1,069,087 | 133,667 | 0.125 |
| 10/1/2020 | 2,465,066 | 289,207 | 0.117 | 592,692 | 112,811 | 0.190 | 805,399 | 115,655 | 0.144 |
| 11/1/2020 | 1,902,416 | 298,875 | 0.157 | 446,644 | 100,077 | 0.224 | 553,446 | 125,212 | 0.226 |
| 12/1/2020 | 1,409,062 | 151,890 | 0.108 | 295,785 | 55,992 | 0.189 | 316,008 | 44,439 | 0.141 |
| 1/1/2021 | 1,453,469 | 131,028 | 0.090 | 311,642 | 60,615 | 0.195 | 320,302 | 37,225 | 0.116 |
| 2/1/2021 | 1,409,831 | 149,322 | 0.106 | 293,920 | 51,729 | 0.176 | 338,210 | 49,135 | 0.145 |
| 3/1/2021 | 2,118,900 | 236,446 | 0.112 | 501,676 | 92,756 | 0.185 | 619,985 | 86,945 | 0.140 |
| 4/1/2021 | 3,262,524 | 376,008 | 0.115 | 836,557 | 147,254 | 0.176 | 1,121,053 | 146,532 | 0.131 |
| 5/1/2021 | 4,960,055 | 580,448 | 0.117 | 1,429,016 | 255,285 | 0.179 | 1,581,501 | 188,227 | 0.119 |
| 6/1/2021 | 3,889,463 | 378,217 | 0.097 | 1,097,442 | 166,139 | 0.151 | 1,250,259 | 111,966 | 0.090 |
| 7/1/2021 | 4,113,958 | 373,524 | 0.091 | 1,141,064 | 155,448 | 0.136 | 1,274,272 | 92,619 | 0.073 |
| 8/1/2021 | 3,675,674 | 310,387 | 0.084 | 985,579 | 133,837 | 0.136 | 1,111,289 | 85,532 | 0.077 |
| 9/1/2021 | 3,406,093 | 330,507 | 0.097 | 894,532 | 130,588 | 0.146 | 1,133,554 | 120,485 | 0.106 |
| 10/1/2021 | 3,074,436 | 287,925 | 0.094 | 795,056 | 126,712 | 0.159 | 959,322 | 99,435 | 0.104 |
| 11/1/2021 | 2,254,284 | 368,541 | 0.163 | 533,222 | 112,216 | 0.210 | 636,788 | 110,904 | 0.174 |
| 12/1/2021 | 1,727,492 | 157,404 | 0.091 | 383,270 | 63,220 | 0.165 | 423,244 | 46,726 | 0.110 |
| 1/1/2022 | 1,796,634 | 147,796 | 0.082 | 368,869 | 56,191 | 0.152 | 421,042 | 42,106 | 0.100 |
| 2/1/2022 | 1,670,226 | 139,998 | 0.084 | 366,374 | 56,498 | 0.154 | 416,020 | 49,893 | 0.120 |
| 3/1/2022 | 2,298,880 | 209,204 | 0.091 | 553,754 | 88,367 | 0.160 | 711,049 | 80,748 | 0.114 |
| 4/1/2022 | 3,840,129 | 411,336 | 0.107 | 1,101,144 | 188,005 | 0.171 | 1,337,933 | 155,682 | 0.116 |
| 5/1/2022 | 5,457,339 | 620,655 | 0.114 | 1,627,412 | 295,649 | 0.182 | 1,716,573 | 187,423 | 0.109 |
| 6/1/2022 | 4,370,746 | 346,264 | 0.079 | 1,273,600 | 174,887 | 0.137 | 1,412,447 | 104,365 | 0.074 |
| 7/1/2022 | 4,579,764 | 311,195 | 0.068 | 1,299,491 | 156,287 | 0.120 | 1,464,126 | 90,862 | 0.062 |
| 8/1/2022 | 4,109,297 | 329,791 | 0.080 | 1,109,781 | 140,174 | 0.126 | 1,246,457 | 85,633 | 0.069 |
| 9/1/2022 | 3,822,817 | 323,558 | 0.085 | 1,011,120 | 142,086 | 0.141 | 1,284,681 | 121,353 | 0.094 |
| 10/1/2022 | 3,511,831 | 315,905 | 0.090 | 985,657 | 143,413 | 0.145 | 1,060,194 | 102,248 | 0.096 |
| 11/1/2022 | 2,582,145 | 280,208 | 0.109 | 726,950 | 144,952 | 0.199 | 686,584 | 85,826 | 0.125 |
| 12/1/2022 | 2,086,915 | 174,300 | 0.084 | 473,761 | 63,778 | 0.135 | 507,679 | 49,303 | 0.097 |
| 1/1/2023 | 2,196,681 | 140,611 | 0.064 | 505,312 | 68,705 | 0.136 | 530,776 | 40,297 | 0.076 |
| 2/1/2023 | 2,082,034 | 145,483 | 0.070 | 491,415 | 66,644 | 0.136 | 544,590 | 48,332 | 0.089 |
| 3/1/2023 | 2,952,048 | 227,082 | 0.077 | 746,711 | 101,103 | 0.135 | 871,047 | 78,397 | 0.090 |
| 4/1/2023 | 5,236,757 | 496,784 | 0.095 | 1,648,303 | 252,323 | 0.153 | 1,737,730 | 170,645 | 0.098 |
| 5/1/2023 | 6,320,331 | 587,798 | 0.093 | 1,954,254 | 302,255 | 0.155 | 1,970,334 | 176,546 | 0.090 |
| 6/1/2023 | 5,306,521 | 358,487 | 0.068 | 1,600,577 | 187,190 | 0.117 | 1,695,649 | 103,622 | 0.061 |
| 7/1/2023 | 5,522,359 | 310,440 | 0.056 | 1,645,703 | 160,405 | 0.097 | 1,725,819 | 87,240 | 0.051 |
| 8/1/2023 | 4,975,272 | 299,388 | 0.060 | 1,464,189 | 152,399 | 0.104 | 1,506,578 | 80,692 | 0.054 |
| 9/1/2023 | 4,401,112 | 315,609 | 0.072 | 1,177,843 | 124,867 | 0.106 | 1,409,815 | 99,960 | 0.071 |
| 10/1/2023 | 3,858,025 | 240,575 | 0.062 | 1,026,927 | 106,906 | 0.104 | 1,193,528 | 85,095 | 0.071 |
| 11/1/2023 | 2,987,732 | 226,169 | 0.076 | 798,151 | 95,544 | 0.120 | 818,801 | 72,239 | 0.088 |
| 12/1/2023 | 2,676,743 | 178,805 | 0.067 | 670,708 | 85,970 | 0.128 | 669,948 | 57,631 | 0.086 |
| 1/1/2024 | 2,607,488 | 192,799 | 0.074 | 598,343 | 62,509 | 0.104 | 630,822 | 45,629 | 0.072 |
| 2/1/2024 | 2,699,785 | 190,077 | 0.070 | 695,055 | 87,523 | 0.126 | 693,481 | 55,738 | 0.080 |
| 3/1/2024 | 3,885,323 | 279,878 | 0.072 | 1,086,510 | 137,978 | 0.127 | 1,215,833 | 94,780 | 0.078 |
| 4/1/2024 | 7,412,013 | 797,288 | 0.108 | 2,626,290 | 454,746 | 0.173 | 2,410,338 | 220,985 | 0.092 |
| 5/1/2024 | 6,089,869 | 455,535 | 0.075 | 1,948,384 | 245,189 | 0.126 | 1,893,336 | 131,786 | 0.070 |