Yes, I do agree with what you’d said about the burn rate that can be usefully exploited by peak mammal metabolism and had already raised that point earlier (https://forum.inaturalist.org/t/why-didnt-underwater-breathing-re-evolve/56971/8) - though I posed it as a question instead of a statement of simple facts because I think there’s a lot of nuance to be found and explored in the full factual details.
But I think this is an overreach:
And doesn’t take into account the very different environmental conditions that we think were exerting pressure around the time the cetaceans appeared. Temperatures of both air and water were much higher than today, as was concentration of carbon dioxide, while oxygen concentration was much lower. Sea levels were much higher and water covered much more of the planet’s surface.
The ability to efficiently and constantly vent CO2 is at least as important for mammals as having a reliable supply of sufficient oxygen, and its solubility in water is finite (and greatly diminished as temperature rises) too.
If what is postulated about that time is correct, it would have been a very challenging time to become a large mammal if you remained strictly terrestrial.
Which again isn’t a function of the relative concentration of oxygen in air vs water so much as the ability to carry a reservoir instead of relying on an organ that requires constant flow in a region of sufficiently oxygenated (and sufficiently CO2 depleted) water. The period they can breath hold for on any single dive is highly variable and greatly dependent on the level of their activity during it.
So the point I was expanding on was that, like always, it’s mostly a question of what is the best tool for the job, and that always depends on all the details of the job.
We didn’t have trout-sized cetaceans evolve and populate closed water basins. The mix of lungs and gills in those environments is complex but quite different to the open ocean.
Which is indeed the question implicit in my suggestion that while gills and lungs in some sense “do the same job”, they cannot simply be substituted for each other. Each has costs and benefits that the other does not, and is optimal in niches where the other is not.
I have lungs, so I think lungs are cool. But that doesn’t make me better at everything than the things that don’t have them, or more able to survive for long in all the niches where those critters thrive in large numbers.