How has your confidence in ID’ing changed over time?

It really varies. For some species, I was good before iNaturalist and I still am. I mean, an American Robin is an American Robin is an American Robin. I had to learn that a Scrub Jay is not a Scrub Jay any more, at the species level. There are lots of taxa I thought I knew but I didn’t know well enough; Cooper’s vs. Sharp-shinned Hawk, lots of gulls and sandpipers, Yellow-faced Bumblebee, even Teasels for a while. For some of the problem species I learned more and got better and confident again, though sometimes more cautious, too. For some others, I just gave up, learned to say with confidence, “I don’t know how to ID that.” And then there are species I never knew how to ID but saw on iNaturalist and learned, like Gaultheria hispidula. I’m confident about some of those now. Overall, I’d have to say I still feel confident, but with a lot more qualifications and to some extent about different taxa.

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Same. That is a valid way to learn.

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The Dunning-Kruger effect is real enough, but what you describe is not the Dunning-Kruger effect. That would be when you don’t know what you don’t know—you overestimate your own knowledge or ability. If you realize what you don’t know, and learn more, that’s just learning through experience.

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I’m aware that what I describe is not the Dunning-Krueger effect. Instead of “whether or not it’s a real phenomenon” I should probably say “whether or not this is called the Dunning-Krueger effect”

Mount Stupid
https://forum.inaturalist.org/t/tomatoes-berries-fruits-and-vegetables-discuss/33578
My learning curve is a Valley of a Thousand Hills

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Great post about your experience, I can relate to that.
Dunning-Kruger works as a metaphor: “If you are stupid you don’t know how wrong you are” versus “If you are inexperienced you don’t know how wrong you are”.

Unfortunately the fog following my latest mild COVID sapped my confidence big time.

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